A dynamic growth model for prediction of nutrient partitioning and manure production in growing-finishing pigs: Model development and evaluation.

Nutrient loading and air emissions from swine operations raise environmental concerns. The objective of the study was to describe and evaluate a mathematical model (Davis Swine Model) of nutrient partitioning and predict manure excretion and composition on a daily basis. State variables of the model were AA, fatty acids, and a central pool of metabolites that supplied substrate for lipid synthesis and oxidation. The model traced the fate of ingested nutrients and water through digestion and intermediary metabolism into body protein, fat, water, and ash, where body protein and fat represented the body constituent pools. It was assumed that fluxes of metabolites follow saturation kinetics, depending on metabolite concentrations. The main inputs to the model were diet nutrient composition, feed intake, water-to-feed ratio, and initial BW. First, the model was challenged with nutrient partitioning data and then with excretion data. The data had 48 different feeding regimes with contrasting energy and lysine intakes at 2 different stages of growth. The overall observed and predicted mean were 109 and 112 g/d for protein deposition and 132 and 136 g/d for lipid deposition respectively, suggesting minor mean bias. Root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) was used in evaluation of the model for its predictive power. The overall RMSPE was 2.2 and 4.1 g/d for protein and lipid deposition, respectively. The excretion database used for evaluation of the model was constructed from 150 digestibility trials using growing-finishing pig diets that had a wide range of nutrient chemical composition. Nutrient and water excretion were quantified using the principle of mass conservation. The average daily observed and predicted manure production was 3.79 and 3.99 kg/d, respectively, with a RMSPE of 0.49 kg/d. There was a good agreement between observed and predicted mean fecal N output (9.9 and 9.8 g/d, respectively). Similarly, the overall observed and predicted mean urine N output was 21.7 and 21.3 g/d, respectively, suggesting minor mean bias. The RMSPE was 1.9 and 4.1 g/d for fecal and urinary N, respectively. Evaluation of the model showed that the model predicts manure excretion and N content well and can be used to assess environmental mitigation options from swine operations.